Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/1f flare from Region 125 (S08E55). An associated Type II
radio sweep and CME was observed with this flare, but the ejecta was
not earthward directed. Region 119 (S14W10) produced occasional low
C-class flares. This region continues to develop and a weak delta
configuration is now evident. Region 105 (S08W83) also produced
minor C-class flares as it rotates around the west limb. New Region
126 (S23E75) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Developing Region 119 has best potential for a low
M-class flare. There is still a small chance for a low M-class flare
from Region 105 on the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak
shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft just before 19/0600Z. Solar
wind speed gradually increased to over 750 km/s by late in the
period, but total magnetic field measurements and densities remained
very low. This disturbance is likely associated with the C8 flare
and CME observed on 17 September. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels through day
one. Unsettled conditions are expected to prevail after the current
disturbance subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 165 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 013/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 020/020-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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