Viendo archivo del martes, 10 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 253 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E42)
produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M2/1n flare
with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps, however no
significant CME was visible in LASCO imagery following the event.
Numerous C-class flares also occurred, with many from Region 105 but
also from Regions 107 (N11E43) and 103 (N15W21). Region 105 remains
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, while
Regions 103 and 107 have both undergone rapid growth in size and
complexity during the period. Three new regions were numbered
today: 108 (S23E49), 109 (S08E18), and 110 (N20E18). All are
presently small and simply structured.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare event exists for Region 105.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
Persistent southward Bz during most of the past 24 hours was
responsible for the elevated periods of activity.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the next 48-72 hours, as an
equatorial extension of the south polar coronal hole rotates though
geoeffective heliographic longitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 221 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 220/225/225 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 013/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 012/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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