Viendo archivo del jueves, 22 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S07W71)
produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC. This event had an
associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep.
This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and
continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at
22/1802 UTC. Another region was numbered today as Region 86
(S21E29).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 remains capable of producing a major
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in
progress. The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at
22/0940 UTC. Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340
UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615
UTC. This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in
response to the M5 event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 50% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Aug 220 Previsto 23 Aug-25 Aug 215/215/210 Media de 90 Días 22 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 019/041 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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