Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 agosto 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69 (S07W03) has produced three M-class events, the largest an M3.4/Sf at 17/2051 UTC. Other activity from this region has been a number of C-class events and numerous sub-flares. Region 69 continues to grow in area and spot count at 1950 millionths and 58 spots, and is exhibiting multiple magnetic delta configurations within the same penumbra. Region 79 (S21E18) has shown growth particularly in spot count. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 82 (N21E06) and Region 83 (S18E67).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential to produce a major event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled condition with one three-hour period of isolated active levels at 17/0900 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 17/1405 UTC, reached a peak value of 1350 pfu at 17/1710 UTC and decreased below threshold levels at 17/1845 UTC. NASA/ACE data indicates that the solar wind velocities decreased throughout the day from a peak velocity of 600 km/s to around 450 km/s due to waning coronal hole effects.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor to major storm levels on day one of the forecast period. A shock arrival from the M5/full halo CME event on 16 August is expected early on day one. The geomagnetic field for day two and three of the forecast period is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Aug a 20 Aug
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Aug 227
  Previsto   18 Aug-20 Aug  230/235/235
  Media de 90 Días        17 Aug 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Aug  008/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  050/070-018/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Aug a 20 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor30%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%25%
Tormenta Menor30%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%05%

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