Viendo archivo del miércoles, 14 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61
(N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC
associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar
proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the
last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at
14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth
phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated
C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which
now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03)
produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New
Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through
the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region
69.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high
latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary
maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue
into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME
event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this
disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 90% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 208 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 210/215/215 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 01% |
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