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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61 (N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at 14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03) produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region 69.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
A geomagnetic disturbance is expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón90%75%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Aug 208
  Previsto   15 Aug-17 Aug  210/215/215
  Media de 90 Días        14 Aug 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%35%25%
Tormenta Menor20%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%20%01%

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