Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only infrequent small subflares
occurred. New Region 39 (S12E68), the likely site of the X3 event
late on 20 July, rotated fully into view as a moderate-sized group
with penumbra on both the leader and trailer spots. Limb proximity
hinders magnetic analysis. Other new regions emerging on the disk
today are; 40 (S22E01), 41 (N16E22), and 42 (S18E38). Region 30
(N20W86) is beginning its west limb passage, and Region 36 (S07W15)
remains the most prominent region visible.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30, 36, and 39 are all possible sites for an
isolated event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Nearly steady southward Bz (5 nT) coupled with enhanced
radial speed (500+ km/s), brought intervals of disturbed conditions.
A small greater than 10 MeV proton event, likely related to the X3
on 20 July, began at 22/0655 UTC. The tentative maximum is 26 pfu at
22/1635 UTC. Fluxes remain in excess of 20 pfu now. The energetic
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jul 190 Previsto 23 Jul-25 Jul 190/190/195 Media de 90 Días 22 Jul 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 017/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jul 015/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jul a 25 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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