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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was high. The event in progress at issue time yesterday, from behind the east limb near S10, reached the X3 level at 20/2130UTC. There was an associated type II sweep and tenflare. The site of the activity has, as yet, failed to fully appear, but should do so in the next 24 hours. Some plage and faculae are now visible in that vicinity. Elsewhere, Regions 30 (N18W76) and 36 (S06W02) continue to impress in white light and H-alpha, but have been relatively quiet. One new region, 38 (N17E51), was assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Watch the east limb for more energetic activity over the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the period. Faster than normal solar wind, with some southward Bz, brought periods of minor storm conditions to local nighttime sectors. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons has occurred, with current readings near 5 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a few hours near midday.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Jul 183
  Previsto   22 Jul-24 Jul  185/185/185
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jul 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul  013/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  015/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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