Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 194 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 30
produced an M1/2f flare at 13/0008 UTC. This region also produced
numerous B- and C-class flares with minor discrete radio bursts and
sweeps. The number of umbrae has doubled today although penumbral
coverage appears to have slightly decayed since yesterday. Magnetic
structure has changed little today, the beta-gamma-delta
configuration remains evident. A 20 degree disappearing filament
was observed in the southeast quadrant at approximately 13/1300 UTC.
A partial halo CME was seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery which does not
appear to be earth directed. Regions 32 (S20W14) and 33 (N08E00)
were assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 is still capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two. Day three may experience isolated active conditions due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jul 135 Previsto 14 Jul-16 Jul 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 13 Jul 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/008-008/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jul a 16 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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