Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 julio 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 189 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An impulsive M1.6 flare occurred at 08/0921 UTC, with SOHO/EIT imagery suggesting a northeast limb source for this event. Lesser C- and B-class events also occurred during the period, but without optical correlations. Most regions on the visible disk remained little changed, or declined in size and complexity. Two new regions were numbered: Region 28 (S17E42) and Region 29 (S16E52). Both are small and simply structured.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance for isolated, moderate-level activity. Region 19 (S19W44) remains a possible source of isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, which began at 07/1830, ended today at 08/0620 UTC. Maximum flux of 22 pfu was observed at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A chance for isolated active periods exists for the next two days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Jul a 11 Jul
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Jul 131
  Previsto   09 Jul-11 Jul  130/130/135
  Media de 90 Días        08 Jul 167
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Jul  010/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Jul  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  012/012-012/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Jul a 11 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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