Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 julio 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 188 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jul 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M1.0 flare occurred during 07/1114-1143-1317 UTC. Imagery from SOHO/LASCO revealed a fast partial halo CME off the southwest limb in association with this event, possibly from old Region 17 (S18, L=235) behind the west limb. This event also caused an enhancement in energetic protons (see section IIA below). Other activity included a multi-peak C-class event with maximum flux of C3.5 at 07/0401 UTC. H-alpha imagery from the IPS Culgoora observatory revealed an active prominence on the southwest limb as well as plage brightening in Region 19 (S19W32) in association with this event. Another event of interest occurred at about 07/1700 UTC, with a large, 35-degree filament eruption centered near N11W49, which also produced a CME visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 27 (S15E26) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 19 remains a potential source of M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one isolated active period observed at Boulder during 07/1500-1800 UTC. Coronal hole effects appeared to wane throughout the day. A 10 MeV proton event began at 07/1830 UTC, due to enhanced flux following the LDE discussed in section 1A above, and remains in progress. Maximum flux observed thus far was 22 pfu at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible during the next 3 days, in response to earlier CME activity from Region 19 as well as from the filament eruption and other flare activity observed today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jul a 10 Jul
Clase M35%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón35%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Jul 137
  Previsto   08 Jul-10 Jul  132/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        07 Jul 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jul  018/023
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  011/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/015-012/012-012/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jul a 10 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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