Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 182 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were
observed throughout the period. Region 19 (S18E50) now exceeds 600
millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta configuration.
Despite its obvious complexity, this region was relatively quiet.
Region 17 (S19W37) is in a slow growth phase and is developing some
mixing. Another impressive coronal mass ejection was observed off
the SE limb today associated with a prominence eruption at 01/1300Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 17 and 19 both have potential for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated minor storm
periods were observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes. These disturbed conditions are
likely to subside by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jul 147 Previsto 02 Jul-04 Jul 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 01 Jul 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 012/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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