Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Three new regions
were numbered today: Region 9999 (S05W61), Region 0000 (N18E50),
and Region 1 (N20E70). Please refer to the attached plain message
for a region numbering discussion. Region 9987 (S16W86) produced a
C1 flare at 14/1020 UTC. Region 9991(S21W21) has remained
relatively stable. New Region 1 has shown some surging but due its
limb proximity prevents a complete analysis.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 9987 and 9991 have the potential of C- and low level M-class
events. Old Region 9963 (N17, L= 318) is due to return on day two
of the forecast period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jun 131 Previsto 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/140/145 Media de 90 Días 14 Jun 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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