Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 161 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Two optically
uncorrelated C1 x-ray flares comprised the flare activity for the
period. Region 9987 (S15W29) grew in magnetic complexity and
penumbral coverage today. Even so, several point brightenings and
intermittent dark surging were all that kept this region from being
quiescent during the past 24 hours. Region 9985 (N18W51) showed a
continued decay in spot count and magnetic complexity. Most other
active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New
Region 9995 (N10W01) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. A
coronal hole may have been responsible for the active conditions
that began near mid-period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jun a 13 Jun
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jun 152 Previsto 11 Jun-13 Jun 150/145/150 Media de 90 Días 10 Jun 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jun a 13 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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