Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 152 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Two impulsive M-class
events occurred during the period. The first was an M1/1n flare
from Region 9973 (S17E23) at 01/0357 UTC. This event was
accompanied by a moderate tenflare (260 sfu), and Type II/IV radio
sweeps (with estimated sweep velocity = 493 km/s). Region 9973
retains its large size and moderate magnetic complexity though also
appears relatively stable. Today's second event was an M1/Sf flare
from Region 9979 (S30E63), which occurred at 01/1049 UTC. This
region is exhibiting moderate magnetic complexity as it rotates into
better view on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 9980
(S29E08) emerged on the disk today as a small and simply structured
spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low to moderate levels for the next three days. A chance for an
isolated major flare exists for Regions 9973 and 9979.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled for most of the
forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active conditions
by the end of the period, which may result from the solar activity
reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event (described in section
1A above).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jun a 04 Jun
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jun 179 Previsto 02 Jun-04 Jun 175/170/170 Media de 90 Días 01 Jun 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 May 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 005/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jun a 04 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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