Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 151 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare during the period was an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 31/0016 UTC. The source region, based on EIT/LASCO imagery, is believed to originate from an area just behind the east limb in the proximity of newly numbered Region 9979 (S31E77). A long duration C3 x-ray flare that occurred 31/0321 UTC had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 498 km/s. The source region for this event appears to have originated from the northwest limb, again, based on EIT/LASCO imagery. Region 9973 (S16E34) produced several minor C-class flares and retains a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic structure to the spot group. Regions 9977 (S20W41) and 9978 (S20E62) were also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 9973 has a slight chance of producing a major flare event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 May 182
  Previsto   01 Jun-03 Jun  175/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        31 May 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 May  005/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 31 May  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  005/008-005/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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