Viendo archivo del martes, 28 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9957 (N12W86)
produced a C3/Sf flare at 28/1635 UTC. This region remains active
as it transits the west limb. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9971 (N21E00), Region 9972 (S26E56) and Region 9973
(S16E73). Region 9973 produced a number of minor C-class flares and
currently is the largest spot on the disk with an area of 420
millionths. An impressive halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 28/1626 UTC. However this CME appears to have a backside
source.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9961 and 9963 have the potential for isolated
M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar
wind data indicated a continued gradual decay in velocity to
approximately 600 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 May 186 Previsto 29 May-31 May 190/195/195 Media de 90 Días 28 May 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 May 022/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 May 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 008/008-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 12% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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