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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 147 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9957 (N10W73) produced an M2/2f flare at 27/1810 UTC associated with minor discrete radio emission. Gradual decay may have continued in this region, but it was difficult to tell given limb foreshortening effects. However, it appeared that a weak delta persisted within its northern cluster of spots. Region 9961 (S22W30) produced isolated subflares as it continued to decay. Region 9970 (N05E41) appeared to stabilize as a simply-structured D-type spot group. Active surging and subflare activity was observed on the southeast limb near SE17. This limb activity may indicate the active return of old Region 9934 (S16, L = 211). A filament erupted from the northeast quadrant around midday. The eruption was associated with C2 X-ray event and a CME off the northeast limb. The CME did not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare during the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to quiet to active levels with minor storm conditions observed at some high latitude stations. This activity was likely due to coronal hole effects. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual rise in velocities during the period with peak velocities in the 700 to 800 km/sec range.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Quiet to active conditions are expected during the first half of the period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the remainder of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event until 29 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 May a 30 May
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 May 187
  Previsto   28 May-30 May  180/180/180
  Media de 90 Días        27 May 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 May  009/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 May  017/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 May a 30 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor20%12%12%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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