Viendo archivo del viernes, 24 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 144 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9963 (N15E23) produced an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 24/0646 UTC and a few C-class flares. There were no significant changes noted in this region. An optically uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at 24/0322 UTC. Region 9957 (N11W32) continued to gradually decay, but remained moderately complex. Region 9960 (N14W09) showed no significant changes during the period, but retained a delta magnetic configuration within its trailer spots. Region 9961 (S22E09) appeared to be in a decay phase with a weakened delta magnetic configuration within its intermediate spots. New Region 9968 (S13E26) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Regions 9957, 9960, and 9961. There is also a slight chance for a major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/1755 UTC ended at 24/1455 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 820 pfu at 23/1055 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Active periods are possible during 25 May due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period. There is a slight chance for a proton event during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 May a 27 May
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 May 189
  Previsto   25 May-27 May  180/180/180
  Media de 90 Días        24 May 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 May  052/054
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 May  006/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  015/015-010/008-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 May a 27 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%25%
Tormenta Menor20%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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