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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 140 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9961 (S22E62) produced two M-class flares and one X-class flare during the past 24 hours. The X-flare was an X2/2n at 1527 UTC and was impulsive. Nonetheless this flare was associated with a narrow-width CME from the southeast limb. The first M-flare was an M4 at 1029 UTC and the second was an M5 at 1053 UTC. Both of these events were impulsive and were attributed to 9961 based on SOHO/EIT data. Region 9961 appears to be a compact, magnetically complex group which has at least a gamma classification, and possibly a magnetic delta. Region 9957 (N09E22) continues to be the largest group on the disk and has a delta configuration in a compact collection of spots. A partial halo CME was observed in C2 at 19/2026 UTC and was centered over the southwest limb. EIT images at the same time confirmed a front-side source from the southwest part of the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate, but there is a chance for an additional major flare event from either of Region 9961 or 9957.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was an isolated active period from 1500-1800 UTC. An interval of enhanced solar wind flow passed the ACE solar wind spacecraft beginning at 0257 UTC and lasted about 10 hours. The Bz magnetic field component was mostly negative with typical values between -5 nT and -10 nT. The onset of the this flow at Earth caused a sudden impulse at 0342 UTC, which measured 22 nT on the Boulder magnetometer.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field should be mostly unsettled tomorrow and quiet to unsettled on the second day. Activity on the third day is expected increase slightly to unsettled with some isolated active periods due to possible effects from today's partial halo CME that began at 19/2026 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 May a 23 May
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 May 171
  Previsto   21 May-23 May  170/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        20 May 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 May  008/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 May  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/010-005/008-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 May a 23 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor10%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%15%

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