Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9948
(S22E14) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0813 UTC. SOHO/LASCO imagery
indicates the associated CME is not Earth directed. At
approximately 15/0900 UTC an eruptive filament lifted off the NW
limb producing a non Earth directed CME. Region 9945 (S05W39) has
shown gradual growth, polarity mixing in the trailing spots, and a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Three new regions were numbered
today: Region 9953 (N06W52), Region 9954 (S22E65), and Region 9955
(S14E67).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three
hour period of active conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 May a 18 May
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 May 159 Previsto 16 May-18 May 160/165/160 Media de 90 Días 15 May 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 May 020/032 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 May 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 May a 18 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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