Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 mayo 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 May 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S16W84) produced a C3/Sf flare at 13/0101 UTC. Region 9934 maintains its beta-gamma-delta configuration as it transits beyond the west limb. Region 9937 (S07W64) has simplified in magnetic complexity to a beta configuration. Region 9948 (S22E38) remains relatively stable with only a slight decrease in area coverage. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery revealed a CME off the NE limb at approximately 13/1100 UTC. Analysis of this event indicates a probable source beyond the NE limb. One new region was numbered today: Region 9952 (S15W22).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events. Region 9948 also has a slight chance of M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one three hour period of active conditions (00-03 UTC). Greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels with a maximum value of 783 pfu at 13/1525 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one of the period due to effects from the M1 event on 11 May. Enhanced greater than 2 MeV electrons are possible on day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 May a 16 May
Clase M45%40%35%
Clase X05%05%01%
Protón05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 May 172
  Previsto   14 May-16 May  175/170/170
  Media de 90 Días        13 May 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 May  013/019
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 May  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 May a 16 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa02%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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