Viendo archivo del viernes, 10 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9946 (S06E38)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 10/0039 UTC.
This region produced a couple of smaller C-class flares as well.
Region 9934 (S16W46) has shown a rapid growth in penumbral coverage
which contributed to the reformation of the delta magnetic complex
in the trailing portion of the cluster. Even so, this region was
limited to minor flares, point brightenings, and surges throughout
the period. Region 9937 (S08W25) produced several small C-class
flares and has shown a slight growth in the spot coverage since
yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9947
(N23W46) and Region 9948 (S21E71).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 appears quite capable of producing M-class
flare activity
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels at middle
latitudes. Quiet to active conditions were seen at the high
latitudes. ACE satellite data suggests a solar sector boundary
crossing may have been responsible for the elevated field activity
at the higher latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 191 Previsto 11 May-13 May 195/200/195 Media de 90 Días 10 May 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 011/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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