Viendo archivo del lunes, 29 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 119 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low, optically
uncorrelated C-class flares were observed, the largest being a C4 at
29/0940Z. The likely sources for most of the discrete X-ray bursts
were Regions 9915 (N12W53) and 9919 (N15W13). No appreciable changes
were noted in these or the remaining active regions on the visible
disk. The overall enhanced X-ray baseline is likely due to the
return of several active regions on or near the east limb.
Considerable CME activity was noted off the east limb over the past
24 hours. New Regions 9927 (S28E68), and 9928 (N18E75) were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Continued C-class flares are likely from Regions 9915 and 9919. The
potential for activity at or near the east limb will increase over
the coming days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes. The disturbed conditions are due to a
high speed coronal hole stream that began on the 27th.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expect
to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Apr a 02 May
| Clase M | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Apr 153 Previsto 30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165 Media de 90 Días 29 Apr 193
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Apr 014/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Apr a 02 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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