Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 117 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf from Region 9919 (N12E14). Other minor C-class flares
were observed in this Beta region. No significant activity or
changes were noted in the remaining active regions. The filament
eruption observed late in the last period from near S32W12 produced
a large CME, but it does not appear Earthbound. New Region 9926
(N12E26) was numbered today. This spot cluster was formerly grouped
with Region 9919, but magnetograms indicate that it is a separate
region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 9915 (N11W26) and 9919 will likely produce
C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but became unsettled late in
the period. Solar wind indices on ACE suggest that we are
transitioning into a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater
than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated
following the proton event that began on 21 Apr and ended on the
26th.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods at all
latitudes due to high speed coronal hole flow. Minor storm
conditions are expected at high latitudes during local nighttime
hours. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions to return by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Apr a 30 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Apr 157 Previsto 28 Apr-30 Apr 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 27 Apr 195
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Apr a 30 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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