Viendo archivo del viernes, 26 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 116 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was low with very isolated low C-class
activity observed. Region 9912 (N11W78) continues to slowly decay as
it approaches the west limb. Regions 9914 (N04W25), 9915 (N11W12),
and 9919 (N12E33), exhibited minor growth. The remaining regions on
the visible disk were stable or in decay. A significant segment of
the large E-W filament centered near S32W12 disappeared late in the
period. It is too early to confirm if a CME accompanied this
filament eruption.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Isolated low c-class flares are expected.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 21/0225Z, and peaked on 21/2320Z at 2520 pfu, ended
today at 26/0715Z. The 10 MeV proton flux remains elevated at near 5
pfu, but continues to slowly decline.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled with isolated active periods. A
recurrent coronal hole is moving into a geoeffectively favorable
position; expect disturbed conditions to develop this period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Apr a 29 Apr
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Apr 163 Previsto 27 Apr-29 Apr 165/165/170 Media de 90 Días 26 Apr 196
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Apr 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Apr 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 012/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Apr a 29 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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