Viendo archivo del jueves, 25 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 115 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9912 (N11W65)
produced an impulsive M1/1f flare at 24/2156 UTC associated with
minor radio emission. This region continued to slowly decay. Region
9924 (S15W20), which emerged rapidly yesterday, began to gradually
decay. Minor growth was observed in Region 9915 (N12E01). The
remaining regions were unremarkable including newly numbered Region
9925 (S14W36).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with an outside chance for an isolated low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during most of the
period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225
UTC persisted, but just barely above event threshold (the maximum
for this event was 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 April. Unsettled
to active levels are expected during 27 - 28 April due to recurrent
coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end early on 26 April.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Apr a 28 Apr
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Apr 167 Previsto 26 Apr-28 Apr 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 25 Apr 197
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Apr 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 012/012-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Apr a 28 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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