Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4/1n at 24/1605 UTC from Region 9912 (N09W51). Region 9912 showed gradual decay, mostly in its trailer spots. Region 9913 (S16W44) produced occasional subflares, a few of which reached C-class. It showed minor growth as well as a minor mix of polarities. Region 9914 (N04E04) showed gradual growth, but remained simply-structured. New Region 9924 (S17W07) emerged rapidly and produced isolated subflares. It was a relatively small D- type spot group with minor polarity mixing throughout. New Region 9923 (S03W31) was also numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are possible during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC continued. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 24.0 PFU and gradually decreasing as the period ended.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April increasing to unsettled to active levels on 27 April due to recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Apr a 27 Apr
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón50%05%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Apr 177
  Previsto   25 Apr-27 Apr  180/180/185
  Media de 90 Días        24 Apr 198
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Apr  021/022
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Apr a 27 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%40%
Tormenta Menor10%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%

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