Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 110 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Most
of today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. The
largest of these was a C4/Sf from Region 9912 at 1548 UTC. Region
9912 showed significant growth during the past 24 hours and is a
D-type sunspot region. Region 9906 (S14W79) continues to be the
largest group on the disk and is beginning to cross the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels at
mid-latitudes and was active to severe storm at high latitudes. The
peak of the magnetic storm occurred from 0000-0900 UTC in
association with strong transient solar wind flow. The level of
geomagnetic activity weakened to mostly active during the last nine
hours, consistent with the slow return of solar wind flow to nominal
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours as the
current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be mostly unsettled
by the second day, and quiet to unsettled by the third day. There is
a possibility for enhancement of greater than 2 MeV electrons during
the next 24-36 hours due to the current high solar wind speeds.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Apr a 23 Apr
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Apr 177 Previsto 21 Apr-23 Apr 170/170/170 Media de 90 Días 20 Apr 200
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Apr 036/044 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Apr 040/060 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Apr a 23 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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