Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. The Region complex 9893/9901 (N20W75) continues to flare as it approaches the west limb. The largest was an M3/Sf at 15/0014 UTC. This region appears to retain its mixed polarities and sunspot delta configuration. Region 9906 (S15W14) also produced M-class activity, a long-duration M1/Sf at 15/0355 UTC. An apparent Earth-directed CME is visible in LASCO coronagraph images following this flare. Decay in Region 9906 since yesterday is most notable as fragmentation in the trailer sunspot complex. Region 9907 (S04E21) continues to develop but has not yet produced significant activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions 9906 and the 9893/9901 complex, as is an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet unsettled for the first day of the forecast period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
Clase M75%50%50%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Apr 203
  Previsto   16 Apr-18 Apr  200/190/185
  Media de 90 Días        15 Apr 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr  008/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  008/008-018/015-018/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%40%40%
Tormenta Menor05%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

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