Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9893 (N20W67)
produced an M1/1f flare at 14/0351 UTC. Sunspots in this area, along
with Region 9901 (N22W56), remain moderately large and complex.
Several other C-class subflares also occurred here, including a
C9/Sf with associated Type II radio sweep at 14/0739 UTC. Region
9906 (S15W02) is also an area of note, continuing to grow and
develop, and producing C-class subflares.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class activity is expected in Regions 9906 and the
9893/9901 complex. A major flare is also possible in these regions.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The 13
April Fredericksburg A-index reported in Part (V) is estimated.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 210 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 210/205/205 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 015/012-010/008-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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