Viendo archivo del martes, 9 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 099 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9899 (N18E33) produced an M2/2b flare at 09/0042 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 552 km/s. The CME activity associated with this event did not appear to be earth-directed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. This region continues to show slow growth in magnetic complexity, evidenced by the addition of satellite spots and penumbral development. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 09/1302 UTC that went optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N19W00) was again, quiescent today, showing no significant activity or appreciable changes from yesterday. However, the delta magnetic spot in this region remains intact. Region 9887 (N04W82) didn't produce any optically correlated flare activity today although an eruptive prominence on the leading edge of region occurred at 09/0720 UTC. This region appears to be in decay as it exits the disk. New region 9904 (S16W07) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux remains slightly elevated, although well below event threshold.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominantly at quiet levels through the forecast period. A slight chance of isolated active periods exists late on day three of the forecast period, due to the possibility of some flanking shock effects from the CME mentioned in IA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Apr a 12 Apr
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 Apr 205
  Previsto   10 Apr-12 Apr  200/195/185
  Media de 90 Días        09 Apr 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 08 Apr  002/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 09 Apr  002/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  004/005-004/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Apr a 12 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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