Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 098 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9901 (N19E24)
produced a C6/Sf flare at 08/0150 UTC and has doubled it's penumbral
coverage since yesterday. A C6 x-ray flare which appears to have
originated in Region 9899 (N18E46) was the largest flare of the
period, occurring at 08/2046 UTC. This region has shown slow but
steady growth today, in both magnetic complexity and penumbral
coverage. Multiple minor C-class were observed today with many
going optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N18E13) was quiescent
today producing no optically correlated flares although this region
has developed a weak delta magnetic spot in the trailing polarity of
the group. New Region 9903 (N19E74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than
10 MeV electron flux was slightly elevated throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled
conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Apr 206 Previsto 09 Apr-11 Apr 200/195/185 Media de 90 Días 08 Apr 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Apr 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 005/005-004/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Apr a 11 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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