Viendo archivo de lunes, 8 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 098 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9901 (N19E24) produced a C6/Sf flare at 08/0150 UTC and has doubled it's penumbral coverage since yesterday. A C6 x-ray flare which appears to have originated in Region 9899 (N18E46) was the largest flare of the period, occurring at 08/2046 UTC. This region has shown slow but steady growth today, in both magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage. Multiple minor C-class were observed today with many going optically uncorrelated. Region 9893 (N18E13) was quiescent today producing no optically correlated flares although this region has developed a weak delta magnetic spot in the trailing polarity of the group. New Region 9903 (N19E74) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was slightly elevated throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Apr a 11 Apr
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Apr 206
  Previsto   09 Apr-11 Apr  200/195/185
  Media de 90 Días        08 Apr 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Apr  008/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  005/005-004/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Apr a 11 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%15%
Tormenta Menor01%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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