Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 097 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9893 (N18E27) produced most of today's activity as well as the largest flare of the day, a C9/1f flare occurring at 07/0523 UTC. The growth of several additional spots seen today in this region although areal coverage went mostly unchanged from yesterday. A source region beyond the east limb produced a Type II radio sweep at 07/0012 UTC that had an estimated shock velocity of 586 km/s. LASCO differencing imagery captured an east limb CME shortly after the Type II was observed, although it is unlikely this event will be geoeffective. New Regions 9900 (S29E07), 9901 (N20E37), and 9902 (N11E75) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, although Region 9893 and 9897 (S02W17) both possess the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit continued a steady drop from moderately enhanced levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible on days one and two of the forecast period. Day three should return to predominantly quiet conditions. The greater than 2 Mev electron flux should be slightly enhanced through the first day of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Apr a 10 Apr
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Apr
  Previsto   08 Apr-10 Apr  200/190/185
  Media de 90 Días        07 Apr 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Apr  004/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  012/012-007/007-004/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Apr a 10 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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