Viendo archivo del viernes, 5 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 095 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Several weak C-class flares occurred throughout the period, from sources including most of the larger active regions on the visible disk. The largest event of the period was a C4/Sf at 04/2306 UTC, from a source near newly numbered Region 9895 (N06E58). Two other regions were numbered today, 9894 (N14W09), and 9896 (S11E74). Newly numbered Region 9896 appears to be the return of old Region 9866, which was a source of several energetic flares on its last transit. It now appears as a large, single polarity spot (possibly the leading spot of a large bipolar group), though lacks any evident bright plage area as would be expected for an energetic region. It's present position near the east limb prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low to moderate, though a chance for an isolated major flare exists, particularly for the emergent regions near the east limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period observed at higher latitudes during 05/1800-2100 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed at geosynchronous orbit was again at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. A chance for isolated active periods exists for days two and three of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain above event threshold for most of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Apr a 08 Apr
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Apr 217
  Previsto   06 Apr-08 Apr  215/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        05 Apr 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Apr a 08 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%15%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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