Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 089 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9885 (N11E27)
produced the largest flare of the day, an M3/1n at 30/1301 UTC. This
is the largest, most complex area presently on the disk and also
produced several C-class subflares throughout the day. Regions 9884
(S19E02) and 9887 (N01E51) also generated subflare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9885 is expected to produce additional M-class
activity and may generate an isolated X-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 29/2140 UTC and was
followed by a 31 nT Sudden Impulse at Boulder at 29/2237 UTC. This
activity is presumed to be associated with the trans-equatorial
coronal hole mentioned yesterday.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels for the duration of
the 3-day forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Mar a 02 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Mar 189 Previsto 31 Mar-02 Apr 190/195/195 Media de 90 Días 30 Mar 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 018/015-018/015-018/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Mar a 02 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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