Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 082 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent
C-class flares occurred. Region 9876 (S16E30) was the most active
area on the disk and produced occasional C-class subflares. It grew
during the period with increased area and magnetic complexity,
particularly in its trailer spots. Region 9878 (N10E43) produced a
long-duration C2/Sf flare at 23/0330 UTC with no significant radio
emission. This region grew at a gradual pace with a minor increase
in area and spot count. Region 9871 (S18W60) produced an isolated
subflare as it continued to gradually decay. New Region 9883
(N06E67) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an M-class flare from Region
9876. Major flare potential may increase in this region if its
current rate of growth continues.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Field
activity increased to unsettled to active levels following a sudden
impulse at 23/1137 UTC (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
22/2020 UTC continued. The preliminary maximum for this event was
16.2 pfu at 23/1320 UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active conditions may occur during 25 - 26
March. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early
in the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Mar a 26 Mar
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Mar 170 Previsto 24 Mar-26 Mar 170/165/165 Media de 90 Días 23 Mar 211
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Mar 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Mar a 26 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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