Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 079 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long-duration C4 flare began
at 1544 UTC and lasted until 1919 UTC. The corresponding source on
the disk was not entirely certain but it seemed most likely to be
correlated to activity observed in Region 9866 (S08W73). Additional
C-class subflares occurred during the day, with many of these coming
from Region 9875. Region 9875 showed steady growth during the past
24 hours. Three new region were assigned today: 9876 (S16E65), 9877
(N18W29), and 9878 (N08E75).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet until 1329 UTC when a sudden impulse
(SI) occurred. Since then the geomagnetic field has ranged from
quiet to active levels. The SI was caused by an interplanetary shock
which was seen at the ACE spacecraft at 1307 UTC. The disturbance is
most likely the result of the halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 at
18/0254 UTC. The shock also pushed the greater than 10 MeV proton
fluxes up to about 19 PFU at 1525 UTC. The proton event fluxes
dropped below event level at 1820 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a
chance for some isolated active levels on the second day as a
possible response to yesterday's partial halo CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Mar a 23 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Mar 188 Previsto 21 Mar-23 Mar 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 20 Mar 213
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 010/010-015/015-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Mar a 23 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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