Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 076 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 9871 (S18E20) produced today's biggest event, an impulsive
M4/Sf at 1931 UTC. The region appears to be growing slowly. An
additional M-class event occurred: an M1 at 1019 UTC for which there
was no optical report. Region 9866 (S09W33) is decaying gradually,
but is still the largest region on the disk. Retrospective analysis
of the CME that occurred around 15/2310 UTC shows a full halo event
with an estimated plane-of-sky speed somewhere in the 750-850 km/s
range. New Region 9873 (S17W09) emerged near the middle of the solar
disk during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days, with Regions 9866 and 9871
being the most likely sources.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV protons began to rise at the very end of the UT day
yesterday and crossed event threshold at 17/0820 UTC. The fluxes
reached a maximum of 13 PFU at 17/0850 UTC. The fluxes dropped below
threshold at 17/1230 UTC, but have been fluctuating and have been on
the increase since around 1500 UTC. It seems probable that the
current slow climb is related to the approach of an interplanetary
shock.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active to minor storm levels tomorrow in response
to the halo CME event of 15/2310 UTC. A decrease to active is
expected on the second day and a further decline to unsettled is
expected by the third day. The current trend of the 10 MeV protons
and the likely arrival of a shock in the next 12 hours all suggest
that the proton fluxes should once again cross threshold.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Mar a 20 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Mar 184 Previsto 18 Mar-20 Mar 190/195/190 Media de 90 Días 17 Mar 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 030/030-020/020-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Mar a 20 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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