Viendo archivo del martes, 12 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C5/1f at 12/0837 UTC from Region 9866 (S10E35). Region 9866
is the most active region and continues its gradual growth with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration in the larger trailing spot.
A long duration C3.0 peaked at 12/0109 UTC with an overall duration
of 5 hours 16 minutes. A full halo CME and Type IV radio sweep were
associated with this event. The source of the CME is unclear.
Activity in Region 9866 at that time suggest a possible source as
does activity beyond the southeast limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9866 continues to grow and has the potential
for major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic fields is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one and two of the forecast
period. On day three, there is a chance of active conditions due to
the CME early on 12 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Mar 178 Previsto 13 Mar-15 Mar 185/190/195 Media de 90 Días 12 Mar 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 008/010-008/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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