Viendo archivo del domingo, 3 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 062 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. A few weak C-class events
occurred, none of which were correlated with optical reports.
SOHO/EIT and available H-alpha imagery suggest that Region 9845
(N18W33) was the likely source of most activity, although Region
9851 (S06E29) appears to have produced a C2 event at 03/0256 UTC.
Three new regions were numbered today: 9854 (N11W09), 9855
(N12E25), and 9856 (S07E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with Region 9845 remaining a possible source of
isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with the onset of high
speed stream effects from a recurrent coronal hole during the next
24-36 hours. Active and isolated minor storm conditions are
expected to occur thereafter through the end of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Mar 183 Previsto 04 Mar-06 Mar 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 03 Mar 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Mar 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 010/010-015/020-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Mar a 06 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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