Viendo archivo del sábado, 2 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 061 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9845 (N18W18) produced
the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf at 02/2016 UTC. Earlier,
an impressive prominence erupted off the southeast limb, near
S43E90, beginning at about 02/1345 UTC. This event was visible in
SOHO/EIT and H-alpha imagery, and a subsequent CME was seen in LASCO
imagery, though not appearing earth-directed. A slight x-ray
enhancement accompanied this event, and persisted through the
remainder of the period. New Region 9853 (S24E69) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A chance for isolated M-class activity exists
for Region 9845.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with some isolated unsettled
periods during 02/1500-2100 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day one. Onset of high
speed stream effects from a large, positive-polarity coronal hole
are expected to develop during day two, and persist for the
remainder of the forecast period, with active conditions likely and
isolated minor storm periods at higher latitudes possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Mar 191 Previsto 03 Mar-05 Mar 185/185/180 Media de 90 Días 02 Mar 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Mar 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 007/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Mar a 05 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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