Viendo archivo del martes, 22 enero 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9791 (S02W46) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 22/0900 UTC. The sunspot group appears to have simplified somewhat since the flare occurred, reducing penumbral coverage to about half of what was observed yesterday. Region 9789 (N18W42) produced an impulsive C5/Sf flare at 22/1313 UTC and has also been in decay since flare occurrence. One event of note, an optically uncorrelated near long duration C1 flare occurred at 22/0758 UTC. This flare had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1017 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't indicate earth directed CME activity with any of today's events. Regions 9787 (S06E19) and 9788 (N18E00) have shown growth over the period as both regions have acquired gamma classification to their magnetic structures. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9787 and 9788 have the potential of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Jan 229
  Previsto   23 Jan-25 Jan  235/235/235
  Media de 90 Días        22 Jan 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan  007/009
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  006/008-006/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%25%
Tormenta Menor05%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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