Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 003 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest
flare of the period was optically uncorrelated, an M1 occurred at
02/2148 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E23) produced a C5/1f at 03/0220 UTC
that had an associated radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity
of 410 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict the presence of an
associated halo with this event. Although this region has been
spotless for several days, Region 9758 (N13W84),produced several Sf
optical flares today. Other activity included a couple small
C-class flares from regions 9770 (N09W41) and 9754 (S05W81). New
Region 9772 (S18E83) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress,
maximum flux was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period. Day three could see some isolated active conditions due to
the ejecta indicated by the Type II radio sweep mentioned in 1A.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day one.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Jan 220 Previsto 04 Jan-06 Jan 220/215/210 Media de 90 Días 03 Jan 220
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 006/008-004/008-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jan a 06 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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