Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Early in the period, newly numbered Region 9767 (S23E73) produced an M2/1f event at 29/2256 UTC. This region is the likely source of the X-class flare and CME activity of 28 December, and has now rotated into view. The region appears to be of significant size and magnetic complexity, but is current location near the east limb prevents a full analysis of it's characteristics. Other activity during the same period included a long duration M1 x-ray enhancement during 29/1950-2355 UTC, with an associated west limb CME evident in LASCO imagery, though appearing to lack any significant earth-directed component. Other regions on the visible disk were mostly quiescent, with a few minor C-class events observed. An additional new region was also numbered today, Region 9766 (N05E62).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominantly moderate levels, with a fair chance for isolated major flare events during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to active. Most of the period was dominated by ongoing effects from yesterday's shock passage, with an extended period of southward IMF producing active conditions during 30/0300-0900 UTC. Late in the period, an additional shock passage was observed at the ACE satellite at 30/1932 UTC, followed by a sudden impulse of 27 nT observed at Boulder at 30/2010 UTC. This event is presumed to be an early arrival of effects from the powerful X-class event of 28 December. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit has fluctuated near the event threshold value of 10 pfu for most of the day, though now appears to be undergoing some enhancement due to the recent shock passage. As a result of near-threshold activity, a 10 MeV proton event has been in progress since 30/0245 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
With the arrival of the most recent shock passage, geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be unsettled to active, with minor storm conditions possible during the first day of the forecast period. An enhancement of activity due to additional shock effects are also possible within the first two days, due to expected effects from the west limb CME of 29 December. Predominantly unsettled and quiet conditions are expected thereafter as shock passage effects wane. The 10 MeV proton event in progress is expected to end within the next 12-24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Dec a 02 Jan
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón50%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Dec 247
  Previsto   31 Dec-02 Jan  250/250/245
  Media de 90 Días        30 Dec 225
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Dec  013/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  018/018
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  020/020-015/015-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Dec a 02 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%25%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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