Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 362 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was high. An X3.4 flare from an
apparent east limb source occurred at 28/2045 UTC, and remained in
progress at the end of the period. This event was accompanied by
bright loops visible in h-alpha imagery behind the east limb near
S27. A fainter prominence was also visible on the northwest limb
near the approximate location of Region 9742 (N12W94), but the lack
of subsequent energetic particle enhancements seems to favor the
east limb source. Other activity included an impulsive M4/Sf from
Region 9742 at 28/0351 UTC, and weaker M-class events from Regions
9748 (S11W76) and 9754 (S08W02). Two new regions were numbered
today: 9764 (N12E15) and 9765 (N05E77).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV proton event which had been in progress since 26 December ended
today. The event began at 26/0605 UTC, reached a maximum flux of
779 pfu at 26/1115 UTC, and ended at 28/1040 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The increase in geomagnetic
field activity, which had been expected for today, has not yet
occurred, but precursors in solar wind data from the ACE satellite
suggest that a shock arrival may still yet occur, perhaps within the
next 10 hours or so. Uncertainty in the earthward speed of shock
propagation from the CME event of 26 December is a likely cause for
the delay, though this event could also miss the Earth. Unsettled
to minor storm conditions, and isolated major storms conditions at
higher latitudes, remain possible within the first day of the
forecast period. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected thereafter.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Dec 263 Previsto 29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/255 Media de 90 Días 28 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 012/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 025/030-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Dec a 31 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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