Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 350 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9733 (N14W36) remained the most active sunspot group on the disk. It produced two M-class flares: an M1/2N at 16/0124 UTC and an M1/1f at 16/0328 UTC. Minor radio emission accompanied both flares. Region 9733 decreased slightly in area and magnetic complexity and appeared to lose the magnetic delta configuration within its northernmost spots. However, it retained a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9739 (S13W43) appeared to be in a gradual growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9742 (N08E64) produced isolated subflares during the period. Magnetogram images suggest this region may possess a moderate degree of magnetic complexity, though it is difficult to gauge given its limb proximity. New Region 9743 (S10E73) produced isolated subflares as it rotated into view. It may represent the return of old Region 9714 (S08, L = 195), which produced M-class flares during its last rotation. New Region 9744 (S06E24) was also numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated, low-level M-class flares are likely. Region 9733 may produce a major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Dec a 19 Dec
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Dec 209
  Previsto   17 Dec-19 Dec  205/200/195
  Media de 90 Días        16 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Dec  010/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Dec a 19 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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