Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 346 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9733 (N14E18) produced an M3/1n flare at 12/1911 UTC associated with
a 420 sfu Tenflare. This large, complex spot group remained in a
growth phase with a delta magnetic configuration observed within its
northernmost trailer spots. Region 9727 (S21W52) produced occasional
subflares, the largest of which was a C9 at 12/2024 UTC. This region
also grew during the period and remained large and complex with
delta magnetic configurations in its interior and trailer spots.
Region 9736 (S09W55) showed minor growth during the period and
produced isolated C-class subflares. New Region 9738 (S21E67) was
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with isolated, low-level M-class flares
likely. There will also be a chance for a major flare from Regions
9727 or 9733.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Unsettled to minor storm levels occurred during 12/0900 - 1200 UTC.
ACE data suggest a solar sector boundary crossing (positive- to
negative-polarity) as the cause for this brief period of increased
activity. Mostly quiet levels occurred during the remainder of the
period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, brief active periods will be possible during 14 -
15 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a chance for
a proton flare from Regions 9727 or 9733.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Dec 237 Previsto 13 Dec-15 Dec 220/220/210 Media de 90 Días 12 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 012/012-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Dec a 15 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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