Viendo archivo del martes, 11 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 345 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9733
(N15E32) produced an impulsive X2/Sf flare at 11/0808 UTC. The flare
was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 2600 sfu
Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that did not appear to
be Earth-directed. Region 9733 showed increased area and magnetic
complexity with at least one magnetic delta configuration within its
northern-most trailer spots. Region 9727 (S22W36) produced an
impulsive M1/2n flare at 11/1451 UTC associated with relatively
minor radio emission. This region showed minor growth in spot number
and area with two delta magnetic configurations evident within its
large trailing spot mass.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from
Regions 9727 and 9733. Either region could produce a major flare
during the period as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Regions 9727 and
9733.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Dec 221 Previsto 12 Dec-14 Dec 215/210/210 Media de 90 Días 11 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-012/010-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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