Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 344 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9727 (S21W24) produced today's largest event, a C8/Sf at 0938 UTC. The region produced additional C-class subflares during the period. The group has shown an increase in area of about 35%. The growth primarily consisted of emerging positive polarity flux just north of the dominant negative leader spots. The merging of these opposite polarities across an east west inversion line has led to the formation of a strong delta configuration in the region. Region 9733 (N14E44) is the other region of note on the disk: the group has more clearly rotated into view with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and produced a couple C-class subflares during the day. A seventeen degree filament near N39E24 disappeared sometime between 0116 UTC and 0545 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate for the next three days. There is a small chance, however, for a major flare or a proton producing flare from Region 9727, especially if magnetic flux continues to emerge.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Dec a 13 Dec
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 Dec 219
  Previsto   11 Dec-13 Dec  215/215/210
  Media de 90 Días        10 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 Dec  001/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 Dec  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  010/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Dec a 13 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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