Viendo archivo del sábado, 8 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 342 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours. Newly assigned Region 9733 (N14E67) produced an M3 flare at 0634 UTC. The event was associated with a CME: coronagraph observations clearly show this CME is not Earth directed. The region produced additional C-class level events. Region 9718 (S06W63) continues to be the largest group on the disk but was relatively quiet and is showing slight decay. Region 9727 (S22E03) continues to be magnetically complex with a beta-gamma-delta, but was also stable and appears to be gradually decaying.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9733 and 9727 are expected to dominate the activity, although Region 9718 could possibly contribute an energetic event as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Dec a 11 Dec
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Dec 221
  Previsto   09 Dec-11 Dec  215/210/205
  Media de 90 Días        08 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  010/008-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Dec a 11 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%

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